Real Estate Bubble - Housing Bubble

Real Estate Bubble - Housing Bubble

Housing Bubble or The Bogeyman Under the Bed
May 11 , 2005 by Steve Mullis

Recently there has been much discussion and speculation about a phrase that sends shivers down the spines of realtors and home owners alike…”The Housing Bubble”.

Having looked at data from a variety of sources and attending a presentation for top named economists, the future of Arizona housing is clearing up nicely.

Developments that can affect the housing market are many…interest rates, employment, population increases or decreases, consumer confidence, the “Housing Affordability Index” the livability index, population age, etc.

Many economists say that the US economy will continue to expand. Real income is up, job growth is up, productivity is up, interest rates remain relatively low (anyone remember the Carter years when interest rates exceeded 20%?), inflation remains under control and job growth continues to accelerate.

Here come the best news. Arizona historically rides on the coattails of the U.S. economy, with one huge caveat. Arizona has, year after year, out performed the general U.S. economy for over 50 years; Arizona is second in population growth for the last 11 years in a row; Arizona is second in job growth.

The U.S. job growth from 1950 - 2004 was 191%. Arizona’s job growth was 2130%. During the same period the U.S. population growth increased 93%. Arizona’s population growth was 898%.

Do the math… Arizona will most likely need at least 50,000 new housing units each year by 2010 and 65,000 new housing units each year by 2010.

Based on the indicators it would seem that the Arizona housing market is in more of a Lift-Off Mode than a countrdown to collapse.

Keep the faith!

Steve Mullis
http://www.stevemullis.com
Email: stevemullis @ cox.net